- Probably Stolen appraisal rewards you for correctly valuing customer items with a magnifying glass.
- Join the Appraisal Board on day 5 — 85 credits standard, 170 on hard mode.
- Only three item types exist: cybernetic hands, plasma cartridges, and Rib Witch sandwiches.
- Every item has a minimum value floor — a damaged item never prices below it.
- Appraisal customers appear at a fixed 33% rate; display your certificate to attract them.
Getting Started with the Appraisal System
The appraisal system in Probably Stolen is a side income mechanic that pays off if you work methodically. On day 5 (always fixed), an Appraisal Board member approaches your shop and offers membership. You can decline, postpone, or buy in immediately.
Video Highlights:
- Full walkthrough of all three appraisal item categories
- Live examples of perfect appraisals with exact credit math
- How the fixed 33% customer appearance rate works
- Pro tips for spotting counterfeit Rib Witch stickers first
Your membership grants the Junior Appraiser Certificate, an appraisal service note, a new magnifying glass, and the first guide (cybernetic hands). The plasma cartridge guide arrives on day 12, with the Rib Witch guide a few days later. Postponing the offer does not lock you out — you still receive every guide once you pay.
Each guide has a base value of 50 credits and can be rebought from Dr. Jackson if sold, but keep them. Their step-by-step structure matches the appraisal order, and the final page holds reference examples you will use constantly.
| Membership Reward | Purpose |
|---|---|
| Junior Certificate | Put in display case to attract appraisal customers |
| Service Note | Largely useless, stash it in your dossier |
| Magnifying Glass | Required tool for all inspections |
| Cybernetic Hand Guide | Delivered at purchase |
| Plasma Cartridge Guide | Delivered day 12 |
| Rib Witch Guide | Delivered a few days after day 12 |
How Customer Appearance Works
Appraisal customers are drawn from a priority list, top to bottom. The game first rolls for a water seller, then a food seller, continuing downward. Each subsequent customer slot skips customers already rolled, so appraisers are relatively rare — the rate is fixed at 33%, and there is no known way to raise it.
Appraisal fees alone rarely cover rent. Pair appraisals with steady trade like water selling — even with the certificate as your only display item, appraisal customers remain uncommon.
Every completed appraisal pays a 20-credit base fee plus 15% of the item's value. A 385-credit hand nets 77 credits; a deluxe Rib Witch can pay 95 credits in a single transaction.
Cybernetic Hand Appraisal
Hands are the simplest category. Base value applies first, and the value never drops below the 50-credit minimum. Work through the guide's order: material, condition, control interface, add-ons, set bonuses.
| Modifier | Option | Value Change |
|---|---|---|
| Material | Aluminum alloy | No change |
| Material | Carbon composite | +50 |
| Material | Gold-plated | +200 |
| Condition | Damaged (parts visible) | -85 |
| Condition | Wear only | -35 |
| Interface | EMG | No change |
| Interface | EMG plus | +45 |
| Interface | Neural interface | +120 |
| Interface | Unspecified | -60 |
| Add-on | Armored plate | +50 |
| Add-on | Blade | +80 |
| Set bonus | Tactical (carbon + neural/EMG+ + armored + blade) | +100 |
| Set bonus | Deluxe (gold + neural + undamaged) | +200 |
Learn the icons: a bolt marks EMG, a bolt with a plus is EMG plus, and the neuron icon marks neural interface. An empty marking means unspecified — deduct 60.
Rib Witch Appraisal Strategy
Rib Witch sandwiches (base 150, minimum 40) are trickier because counterfeits abound. Always check stickers first — if the red logo sticker or green second-run sticker looks wrong (swapped colors, missing logo), the sandwich is counterfeit and prices at the minimum. Skip everything else.
Stickers First
- Check red logo sticker for genuine design
- Green sticker = second production run
- Wrong sticker = instant counterfeit, value 40
Packaging
- Torn packaging drops value to 40
- View the whole package before zooming in
- Facility number over 35 = counterfeit
Modifiers
- First production run: +80
- High-quality facility (1,2,5,8,21,34): +50
- Low-quality facility (7,15,18,26,31): -50
- Deluxe (sesame + double pickles): +300
- Double meat patty: +800
Dates matter too: first-run sandwiches (check the exact production date ranges in your guide) earn +80, and rare dates like 1/425 or 12/438 add +50.
The game loves handing you a gorgeous sesame-bun, double-pickle deluxe — with torn packaging. Always verify the seal before adding the 300-credit deluxe bonus.
Plasma Cartridge Appraisal
Cartridges (minimum 30) hinge on reading condition correctly. Inspect the lines on the casing: straight and parallel means standard; fuzzy lines indicate light wear (-15); missing material, deep scratches, or dings mean heavy wear (-30).
| Modifier | Option | Value Change |
|---|---|---|
| Condition | Standard | No change |
| Condition | Light wear (fuzzy lines) | -15 |
| Condition | Heavy wear (chips, dings) | -30 |
| Crack | Shattered glass | -50 |
| Screws | Exposed | -10 |
| Reinforcement | Cage present | +20 |
| Plasma | Blue (standard) | No change |
| Plasma | Low grade (green/gray) | -50 |
| Plasma | Red (high grade) | Bonus eligible |
| Ignition Lab bonus | Perfect + high-grade + sticker | +80 |
| WLD bonus | Any condition + low/standard + seal | +20 |
| Republic Requisition bonus | No cracks + standard + seal | +40 |
Red plasma is instantly recognizable and required for the Ignition Lab manufacturer bonus. Zhongua Shipbuilding's bonus requires standard condition, standard plasma, and its red sticker.
Fuzzy lines at first glance look like standard condition. Zoom in on the casing lines every time — misreading light wear as standard is the most common cartridge mistake.
Step-by-Step Appraisal Workflow
Join the Board
On day 5, pay 85 credits (170 on hard mode) for membership and place the Junior Certificate in your display case.
Confirm Base and Minimum Value
Open the matching guide, note the item's base value and minimum value floor before touching the magnifying glass.
Check Quick Disqualifiers
Rib Witch: stickers and packaging first. Cartridge: cracks and plasma grade. Hands: obvious damage.
Apply Modifiers in Guide Order
Work material, condition, interface/features, add-ons, and set bonuses exactly as the guide lists them, tracking credits as you go.
Verify and Submit
If the total falls below the minimum, restore it to the floor, then send the estimate for your 20 credits + 15% fee.
Appraisal Mastery Checklist:
- Join the Appraisal Board on day 5
- Study all three guides including final-page examples
- Learn every interface icon at a glance
- Memorize high/low-quality packaging facility numbers
- Identify light wear cartridge lines correctly every time
FAQ
Q: When does the appraisal system unlock in Probably Stolen?
An Appraisal Board member always visits on day 5. Membership costs 85 credits on a standard run or 170 on hard mode. You can postpone and buy later without missing any guides.
Q: Can I sell my appraisal guides?
Yes, each sells for 50 credits and can be rebought from Dr. Jackson, but keeping them is recommended. Their layout mirrors the appraisal order, and the last page contains examples you will reference often.
Q: How do I attract more appraisal customers?
Display the Junior Certificate — currently the only method. The appearance rate is fixed at 33%, so supplement appraisals with regular trade like water selling to cover rent.
Q: What is the fastest way to spot a counterfeit Rib Witch?
Check the stickers before anything else. If the red logo sticker looks wrong or the green second-run sticker is misshapen, the sandwich is counterfeit — value it at the 40-credit minimum and skip all other checks.