- Probably Stolen upgrades should be bought in a strict priority order, starting with the water trader permit
- Water trading is the single most profitable early upgrade path on hard mode
- Appraisal board membership (170 credits) unlocks a reliable second income stream
- Filters + tablets combo is the key to turning cheap ghost water into high-quality water
- Working Pipes perk gives you two free water upgrades, making it near-mandatory for Rock Bottom runs
Upgrade Priority Overview
In Probably Stolen, your shop starts as an empty shell in a dystopian cyberpunk slum, and upgrades are how you transform it into a money-making machine. Credits are scarce, hard mode raises upgrade costs by 50%, and rent climbs 10% each cycle — so every purchase matters. The core upgrade order below is built around the proven Rock Bottom hard mode strategy.
Video Highlights:
- Full Rock Bottom hard mode run with detailed upgrade purchase explanations
- Water trader permit as the first 450-credit purchase
- Appraisal board investment paying for itself within days
- Water purification loop using filters and tablets
- Endgame goal: saving up for purification machines
The upgrade paths split into four categories, each serving a different phase of your run:
| Upgrade | Cost (approx.) | Unlock Phase | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Water Trader Permit | 450 | Day 2 (after Odin bounty) | ★★★★★ |
| Water Neon Sign | Included with permit | Immediately after permit | ★★★★★ |
| Appraisal Board Entry | 170 | Once cash stabilizes | ★★★★★ |
| Water Filters & Tablets | 30–60 each | Weekly from water trader | ★★★★ |
| Purification Machine | High (save up) | Mid-game | ★★★★ |
| Water Testing Kit refills | ~52 | As needed | ★★★ |
On Thin Margins (hard mode), all upgrades cost 50% more, suppliers charge a higher markup, and vendor permits run 2,000 credits. Prioritize upgrades that generate income directly — decorative or convenience upgrades can wait.
Water Trading Upgrades: The Foundation
Water trading is the backbone of any struggling shop. Buying the water trader permit for 450 credits unlocks the neon sign, the trading manual, testing strips, purification tablets, and access to weekly water trader visits.
The water tier system explained:
| Water Tier | Purity Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Rust Water | 90–96% | Toxic, not drinkable, cheap to buy |
| Gutter Water | Low | Barely sellable, purify before use |
| Ghost Water | 96–98% | Filterable into base water |
| Base Water | 98–99% | Standard sellable product |
| High-Quality Water | 99%+ | Sells for roughly 50% more |
Filters no longer remove microbes after the full release rebalance. Use a water filter first, then drop a purification tablet into the filtered water — this combo brings most ghost water up to base or even high-quality water, which sells for significantly more.
Key water trading tactics:
- Place the water neon sign in your display case — it has a 75% daily chance to attract a water seller
- The first customer each day is guaranteed to be a water bottle buyer; always buy their empty bottles
- Never sell partially filled bottles — you waste container capacity
- Mix waters: combining two near-threshold batches averages purity and can tip borderline water into the next tier
- Buy water at 18%+ discounts only; smaller margins aren't worth your limited cash
- Avoid buying during water shortages — but sell aggressively, since prices jump around 35%
- Fill spare bottles with rust water and sell them to the end-of-week trader who buys rust water — empty bottles become 10-credit items
Appraisal Board: The Second Income Stream
For 170 credits, an appraiser board representative offers you membership. This is one of the best value upgrades in the game. You receive an appraisal board sign, a magnifying glass, a certificate, and the cybernetic appraisal guide.
Payment structure is simple: 20 credits base fee plus 15% of the appraised item's value. A single well-appraised cybernetic gauntlet at 425 credits pays out over 80 credits. Appraisal customers have a 33% daily chance that increases every day without one appearing.
Cybernetic gauntlet appraisal modifiers:
| Feature | Modifier | Value Added |
|---|---|---|
| Black color | +50% of base | Material premium |
| Gold plated | +200 | Luxury premium |
| EMG Plus interface | +45 | Control upgrade |
| Armored knuckles | +50 | Protection |
| Blade/knife | +80 (minus 20 offset) | Combat add-on |
| Tactical set match | +100 | Full set bonus |
The appraisal process follows the guide page by page: check color, inspect for damage, verify the control interface, identify armor and blade features, then check set requirements. Once you learn the flow, each appraisal takes under a minute.
Three appraisals in a single visit can pay back the entire 170-credit entry fee. Combined with water trading, the appraisal board covers rent reliably even in the tightest weeks.
Step-by-Step Upgrade Order
Day 1: Scavenge and Survive
With zero cash on Rock Bottom, visit the dumping grounds. Careful Scavenger and Proficient Scavenger perks make this safe and productive. Collect wire and materials to sell tomorrow.
Day 2: Report Odin, Buy the Water Permit
Odin is a guaranteed NPC worth 300 credits (450 with Model Citizen perk). Report him to the police and immediately spend the bounty on the water trader permit.
Week 1: Build the Water Loop
Place the neon sign, buy empty bottles from the guaranteed daily water buyer, purchase discounted ghost water, and filter it into base water for resale. Pay janitorial service every second day.
Join the Appraisal Board
Once you hold 170+ spare credits, buy appraisal board entry. Put the appraisal sign in your display case and start appraising cybernetic gauntlets between water customers.
Invest in Machines
With steady dual income, save for a purification machine from the weekly water trader to automate overnight water processing and scale your operation.
If your scavenge percentage is low, go scavenging. Once it climbs higher, skip the dumping grounds to guarantee two shop customers per day instead — upgraded shops earn more from customers than from scrap.
Perks That Supercharge Your Upgrades
Certain perks directly multiply the value of your upgrade purchases:
Working Pipes
- Grants free rust water access
- Two upgrades included at no cost
- Near-mandatory for water builds
Vigilant
- Never robbed at night
- Saves nightly security fees
- Stabilizes hard mode runs
Colorful Character
- Three extra perk slots
- Costs only one perk point
- Must-take for any serious build
Model Citizen
- +50% bounty rewards
- Odin report jumps to 450 credits
- Funds the water permit instantly
Careful Scavenger
- Never injured at dumping grounds
- No bandage costs
- Pairs with Proficient Scavenger
Welfare Program
- Commissary access
- Alternative to scavenging
- Good for non-scavenger builds
Perk budgets are tight: you start with only three perk points on Rock Bottom, so negative perks like Ascetic (reduced inventory) fund the positive ones. An alternative setup swaps Ascetic for Minimalist plus Blabbermouth if you prefer larger inventory over injury immunity.
Reporting Odin removes him permanently — you lose the ability to sell him contraband like guns and ammo. On hard mode Rock Bottom, the 450 credits are usually worth it, but role-playing runs may prefer keeping him alive.
Weekly Upgrade Checklist
Upgrade Milestones:
- Report Odin and buy the water trader permit (450 credits)
- Place water neon sign in the display case
- Stock filters and purification tablets from the weekly trader
- Join the appraisal board (170 credits)
- Save for the first purification machine
- Keep enough cash reserved for rent (200+ credits)
Event awareness for upgrade timing:
| Event | Effect | Best Response |
|---|---|---|
| Water shortage | Water prices +35% | Sell water, delay purchases |
| Household relief drive | Lower operating costs | Buy testing kits and supplies |
| Nutrice fruit seed shortage | Food +33% | Skip food flipping |
| Fresh dump day | Less junk, more injuries | Scavenge freely if immune |
| Material price drop | Lower sell prices | Delay material sales |
Upgrade FAQ
Q: What is the first upgrade I should buy in Probably Stolen?
The water trader permit at 450 credits. It unlocks the water neon sign, trading manual, testing equipment, and the weekly water trader visit — the fastest reliable income source in the early game, especially on Rock Bottom where you start with zero cash.
Q: Is the appraisal board worth 170 credits?
Yes. Each appraisal pays a 20-credit base fee plus 15% of the item's value. A few gauntlet appraisals recover the full entry cost, and appraisal customer frequency increases over time, making it a dependable long-term income stream alongside water trading.
Q: How do I turn ghost water into high-quality water?
Pour ghost water through a filter installed in a pitcher, then add a purification tablet. Filters remove physical impurities while tablets eliminate microbes — after the full release rebalance, you need both. Mixing two near-threshold batches can also average purity into the next tier.
Q: Which perks support the water trading upgrade path?
Working Pipes is the key perk — it grants free rust water access worth two upgrades. Combine it with Model Citizen for the boosted 450-credit Odin bounty, Vigilant for night security savings, and Colorful Character for extra perk slots.
Q: Should I buy Probably Stolen upgrades during a water shortage?
Avoid buying water-related stock during shortages since purchase prices rise alongside sale prices. Instead, sell your water inventory at the inflated 35% premium, and use the day to sell scavenged materials instead.